NBA

October 21, 2019, 7:59 pm

NBA season win totals: 76ers, Rockets, Bucks best bets to crack 50, predicting over/unders for all 30 teams

Some teams are active to be happier than differents with how this time period goes

NBA season win totals: 76ers, Rockets, Bucks best bets to crack 50, predicting over/unders for all 30 teams
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The 2019-20 daily time period is just astir here, and with it comes the loud of expectations with the cock known as reality. Some teams are active to see their offtime period moves pay off with time periods that meet or transcend expectations, but many franchises are active to be painfully defeated with what is to come. 

The time period will tip off in just one day and what we assumptive over the summertime will go moot. In different words, now is your last accidental to cash in with some wise over/under picks. Fortunately, we've got you ariled with predictions on all 30 teams. 

*All win totals via Westgate SuperBook

Atlanta Hawks

Win Total: (Over/Under 34)

The Hawks went 24-35 from Dec. 1 forward last time period. That is a 33-win pace, and a meaningful adequate example to propose it is more than just a gutsy Atlanta team taking advantage of tankers down the stretch. Finding two extra wins in an Eastern Conference with fewer true contenders should be more than doable if you assume even moderate growth from this team's young core. The defense remains problematic, but this team will score adequate to stay out of the basement. 

Verdict: Over 34

Boston Celtics

Win Total: (Over/Under 49.5)

Last time period's implosion hid just how talented this team really is. Boston's over/under last time period was 59 wins, and if you treat Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving as a relatively even swap, the only major loss here was Al Horford. Gordon Hayward should be better this time period. The team's chemistry should be better this time period. With three promising rookies and a valuable Memphis pick in his back pocket, Danny Ainge is equipped to make a major move if one presents itself. There is just too much to like here to take the under. 

Verdict: Over 49.5

Brooklyn Nets

Win Total: (Over/Under 42.5)  

Kevin Durant raved astir last year's Nets team as one of the biggest reasons he chose Brooklyn, but that team is largely gone. Over 48 percent of last time period's playoff minutes went to players no longer on the team. That team's chemistry played a big part in its success. After the year Kyrie Irving just had, asking him to build chemistry with such an overhauled roster on the fly seems a bit ambitious. The Nets seem destined for a slow start as they work out the kinks of this new team. 

Verdict: Under 42.5  

Charlotte Hornets

Win Total: (Over/Under 23)  

This century, the most wins that the worst team in the NBA has ever posted is 22. It therefore stands to reason that at least one team will win 22 or fewer games this time period. That doesn't guarantee that the Hornets will be that team, but they have the lowest over/under for a reason. This is a truly awful roster with neither the means nor the interest in improving in the short term. Expect the Hornets to have the best lottery odds next May. 

Verdict: Under 23  

Chicago Bulls

Win Total: (Over/Under 34)  

Chicago's offtime period signings ensured a baseline of competence. Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky are floor raisers, and while the Bulls' upside is fairly limited, it's hard to find definitive weaknesses on this roster either. Young's presence alone should improve the defense markedly. Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter are both due for improvement. Zach LaVine might even improve his shot-selection. Chicago's playoff buzz is overblown, but getting to 34 wins isn't exactly a tall ask. 

Verdict: Over 34 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Win Total: (Over/Under 24)  

Cleveland won 19 games last year, but that came largely without Kevin Love. Even if the Cavaliers have the worst defense in the NBA this time period, Love's presence alone is worth a few wins on offense. Improvement from Collin Sexton and whatever the rookie guards provide should do the same. This win total should still land in the 20's, but on the higher end. 

Verdict: Over 24  

Dallas Mavericks

Win Total: (Over/Under 42.5)  

The Dallas Mavericks might one day be a true title contender built around Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. But with very little depth around them and a roster totally bereft of defense, It's okay to assume it won't happen right away. The Mavericks will be cautious with Porzingis coming off of a torn ACL, and finding adequate offense to buoy this defense when he rests is active to be difficult. Given a year to get healthy and build out the roster, the Mavericks could be very promising. Right now? They just aren't there yet. 

Verdict: Under 42.5  

Denver Nuggets

Win Total: (Over/Under 53.5)  

The Nuggets have the daily time period's three most prized commodities: an MVP candidate, depth, and continuity. Nikola Jokic finished fourth in voting last time period. The Nuggets brought back their 10 most-used players from last time period, at least seven of whom immediately qualify as starting-caliber or better. They added yet andifferent player of starting quality in acquiring Jerami Grant this offtime period. Save Jokic and perhaps Jamal Murray, this roster is practically injury-proof. The upside is far higher than 54 wins, but even worst-case scenarios should have the Nuggets hovering around this number.  

Verdict: Over 53.5  

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last time period saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On against the spread and money line picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280. The model's upcoming picks for every game can be found here, while its over/under predictions on time period win totals can be found here.  

Detroit Pistons

Win Total: (Over/Under 37.5)  

The Pistons won 41 games last year, but needed 75 games out of Blake Griffin to get there. Prior to last time period, he hadn't played that many times since the 2013-14 campaign. His average in the intervening period was 67. Assuming injuries bdifferent an aging Griffin more this time period, the Pistons should take a step back in the standings. 

Verdict: Under 37.5  

Golden State Warriors

Win Total: (Over/Under 47.5)  

Too much can go wrong to reasonably pick Golden State's over. Klay Thompson could suffer a setback in his recovery. Stephen Curry will almost certainly miss some games, and while the version of this team that included Kevin Durant could weather a 13-game absence from Curry, this one almost certainly can't. The depth was questionable before the injuries started. Now Marquese Chriss needs to play a real role early on. Aside from Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, the defense is abhorrent, and Green's value will be mitigated by a roster that cannot switch consistently. If everything breaks right, the Warriors are contenders and this pick looks foolish. If almost anything goes wrong, the Warriors just have too much potential to spiral, and having just won three championships, they aren't exactly incentivized to go all-in as many different teams are. 

Verdict: Under 47.5  

Houston Rockets

Win Total: (Over/Under 54.5)  

James Harden has won at least 53 games in four of the past five time periods. Chris Paul was only involved in the last two. Having Harden and an analytically-inclined system alone virtually guarantees 50 wins. Combine that with the fact that Russell Westbrook's rebounding and transition game are both painfully needed, and the Rockets seem geared for a strong daily time period. 

Verdict: Over 54.5  

Indiana Pacers

Win Total: (Over/Under 46.5)  

The uncertainty surrounding Victor Oladipo is a major blow to the Pacers. If he had a definitive timeline to return, the Pacers might be able to compete for this over. However, without Oladipo, they are missing not only a lead ball-handler, but also one of the best defenders at his position. The Pacers will be worse on both sides of the ball without him, but particularly on defense, where the loss of Thaddeus Young will be felt in spades as his replacement, T.J. Warren, is one of the NBA's worst defenders.    

Verdict: Under 46.5  

Los Angeles Clippers

Win Total: (Over/Under 52.5)  

The Clippers have the NBA's best playoff roster by a wide margin, but the daily time period? That's a bit murkier. Paul George is out until at least the middle of November, and while Kawhi Leonard has indicated he plans to play more than he did last time period, he is a bit of an injury risk himself. With Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tobias Harris all gone from last time period's roster, the Clippers just have less to fall back on when Leonard and George miss games. That will deflate their win total in the daily time period, but this team, at full strength, is still well positioned to win the championship in the spring. 

Verdict: Under 52.5  

Los Angeles Lakers

Win Total: (Over/Under 48.5)  

The Lakers have a rare advantage over most of the NBA. Except when they are playing against the Clippers or Milwaukee Bucks, they should realistically have the best player on the floor in every minute of every game. So long as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are staggered, the Lakers will have an MVP-caliber player on the floor at all times. The shooting and defense on the rest of this roster is more than adequate to get this team to 50 wins given its top-end talent. Only injuries can keep the Lakers from hitting their over. 

Verdict: Over 48.5  

SportsLine's computer model simulated the Lakers' opening night game against the Clippers 10,000 times. See which team it picked here. 

Memphis Grizzlies

Win Total: (Over/Under 27.5)  

Remember, the Oklahoma City Thunder won only 23 games with a second-year Kevin Durant and a rookie Russell Westbrook during the 2008-09 time period. It is OK to love a team's young core and at the same time acknowledge that it isn't remotely ready to win games in the short-term. Somebody has to finish at the bottom of the Western Conference. Odds are, it will be the young team that has done little to improve its immediate fortunes. 

Verdict: Under 27.5  

Miami Heat

Win Total: (Over/Under 44.5)  

Jimmy Butler has never played for a team that has gone below .500. The Minnesota Timberwolves finished with 11 fewer wins than they had in the prior time period after trading him, and the Chicago Bulls declined by 14 victories after they moved him. Yes, the loss of Josh Richardson is big, but having Butler more or less ensures .500 basketball. Having Erik Spoelstra, a deep and versatile group of defenders and more young talent than perhaps any time in Heat history gives Miami the upside to reach as high as the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Verdict: Over 44.5  

Milwaukee Bucks

Win Total: (Over/Under 57.5)  

Just as at least one team wins 22 or fewer games every time period, at least one team has won 58 or more games every time period this century. The depth of the Western Conference makes it far likelier that the NBA's top record is active to come from the Eastern Conference. As the East has only two serious championship contenders --the Bucks and the Philadelphia 76ers -- it almost doesn't matter which of them you prefer. If you take the over on both, at least one of them is active to hit, and in all likelihood given the level of competition they will play against, both will. 

Verdict: Over 57.5  

Minnesota Timberwolves

Win Total: (Over/Under 35.5)  

The only definitively positive defensive player in Minnesota's rotation is Robert Covington. In fairness to Covington, he was excellent last time period. The trouble is that he is absolutely essentially to the Timberwolves' defense. Without him on the floor last time period, they allowed 113 points per 100 possessions. He only played in 35 games, and has typically had some difficulty playing full time periods. If one injury is all it takes to torpedo a defense, the under is usually the safe bet. Maybe Minnesota could make it up by playing killer offense, but it didn't make any meaningful additions to a team that finished 13th on that side of the ball last time period.  

Verdict: Under 35.5  

New Orleans Pelicans

Win Total: (Over/Under 39)  

The last time a top-five defense finished below .500 was the 2012-13 Washington Wizards. There is a very reasonable accidental that this team has a top-five defense. Lonzo Ball and Jrue Holiday should be the best defensive backcourt in the NBA. Derrick Favors is painfully underrated, and even the younger players who don't get mentioned are so athletic that they should cause problems. A healthy Zion Williamson makes this a lock, but defense will be this team's bread and butter. 

Verdict: Over 39  

SportsLine's computer model simulated the Pelicans' opening-night game against the Raptors 10,000 times. See which team it picked here.

New York Knicks

Win Total: (Over/Under 27.5)  

You can get away with bad guard play. The Orlando Magic made the playoffs last time period with D.J. Augustin as a starter. But the Magic had an elite defense, which tends to be what carries teams without strong ball-handling. The New York Knicks have three players on their roster who profile as strong defenders. Mitchell Robinson still has a long way to go before his potential turns into consistent production. Taj Gibson is buried behind half a dozen different players at his own position. Frank Ntilikina is buried under his organization's insistence not to develop him. A terrible defense with Elfrid Payton running the offense is a recipe for one of the worst records in basketball. 

Verdict: Under 27.5  

Oklahoma City Thunder

Win Total: (Over/Under 32)  

Forget astir Chris Paul for a moment. There is virtually no accidental that Danilo Gallinari plays a fully healthy time period for this team. He just played his most games since the 2012-13 time period, and he played in only 21 during the 2017-18 campaign. Either he gets hurt (as he tends to), or he doesn't, and a contending team gives Oklahoma City a first-round pick for him. At that point, the Thunder have four NBA-caliber players: Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Steven Adams, and perhaps Andre Roberson if he's healthy. That kind of depth would scream under even if Paul was at his peak. He isn't. 

Verdict: Under 32  

Orlando Magic

Win Total: (Over/Under 42.5)  

This is an upside pick. The Magic brought back virtually all of last year's roster. That team won 42 games. It was also quite young. Johnathan Isaac and Mo Bamba will be better. Aaron Gordon could be better. Markelle Fultz has to be better by virtue of simply being on the court. If those young guys pop, the Magic break this number by default. If they don't? Last year's group nearly did anyway, so this year's team should be in the mix too as well. 

Verdict: Over 42.5  

Philadelphia 76ers

Win Total: (Over/Under 55)  

The same logic that applies to the Bucks applies here. One of those teams is active to win 60 games. Both could, but the Sixers seem like an even safer bet because of how diversified their star power is. If the Bucks lose Giannis Antetokounmpo for any extended period, their over is at risk. If the Sixers lose Joel Embiid, though, Al Horford comfortably slides over to center and Ben Simmons takes greater control over the offense. Philadelphia has better insulation against injury, and that makes it a safer bet for an enormous win-total. Well that, and the fact that this could be the best defense in NBA history relative to the competition. 

Verdict: Over 55  

Phoenix Suns 

Win Total: (Over/Under 29.5)  

Ricky Rubio is a floor-raiser. His teams consistently play better when he is on the floor in the daily time period, and the Suns have needed that basic competence ever since they traded Eric Bledsoe. Just having an adult in the room to initiate the offense and communicate defensively is active to make an enormous difference for this group, and the glaring problems that landed Rubio in Phoenix in the first place (specifically, his lack of a shot) just aren't that damaging in a daily-time period setting. 

Verdict: Over 29.5  

Portland Trail Blazers

Win Total: (Over/Under 45.5)  

Broadly speaking, Portland has the same advantages that Denver has. Damian Lillard is a lower-tier MVP candidate. The bulk of last time period's roster is back, though there are some meaningful changes. The roster has plenty of depth. That has been the Blazers' formula for years now, and they've hit their over in five of the past six time periods. This roster has plenty of holes that can be exploited in a playoff series. The utter lack of wing defense is active to kill them, and once teams start blitzing Lillard and forcing Hassan Whiteside to pass, the offense is active to grind to a halt. The Blazers will rack up plenty of wins in the interim, though. 

Verdict: Over 45.5  

Sacramento Kings

Win Total: (Over/Under 37.5)  

Like the Nuggets and Blazers, depth and continuity are the keys here. The Kings brought back almost every key player from last time period and used their cap space to supplement that core with valuable role players. The thing holding them out of the posttime period is the lack of a true All-NBA talent. If De'Aaron Fox gets there, the Kings are a playoff team. If Marvin Bagley looks like he might get there one day, the same is likely true. Chemistry was a concern until Buddy Hield signed on Monday, and now virtually every veteran has been taken care of financially. This roster is better than last year's 39-win outfit, and the standings should reflect that. 

Verdict: Over 37.5  

San Antonio Spurs

Win Total: (Over/Under 45.5)  

The Spurs attempted only 2,071 3-pointers last time period, the fewest in the NBA. Most of those attempts were hoarded by four players. Davis Bertans, who took 338 of them, is gone. Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills and Marco Bellineli, who combined to attempt 1,112, all remain, but with Derrick White's breakout and Dejounte Murray's return, are all likely to see fewer minutes. Neither White nor Murray are strong shooters. DeMar DeRozan obviously isn't either. DeMarre Carroll is roughly league-average. The Spurs just have no feasible way of making up their lost spacing. Their offense is active to decline this time period, and without an elite defense to fall back on, the Spurs are in serious trouble. 

Verdict: Under 45.5  

Toronto Raptors

Win Total: (Over/Under 46)  

This is a question of motivation more than talent. The Raptors haven't won fewer than 48 games since the 2012-13 time period, and Kawhi Leonard only played for them last year. The scoring is questionable, but the defense and infrastructure is strong adequate to conceivably win this many games if everything breaks right. It just seems unlikely that an organization as ambitious as Toronto doesn't trade off some of its older assets in what should be a rebuilding year. With the looming specter of a Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka or even Kyle Lowry deal, picking the over on Toronto just seems irresponsible. 

Verdict: Under 46  

Utah Jazz

Win Total: (Over/Under 53.5)  

Eventually, the Jazz are active to play like a 54-win team. Utah is just active to take some lumps along the way as it sorts through a relatively messy roster. Neither Bojan Bogdanovic nor Joe Ingles makes sense at power forward full-time. Who is coming off of the bench? The Mike Conley-Donovan Mitchell fit has some kinks to work out. Where is the perimeter defense coming from? The Jazz have adequate talent to eventually figure all of this out, but the Western Conference schedule is unforgiving. The Jazz draw the Lakers, Bucks, 76ers and Clippers twice in their first nine games. A slow start seems probable. 

Verdict: Under 53.5  

Washington Wizards

Win Total: (Over/Under 26.5)  

Ask yourself this: How many games do you expect Bradley Beal to play? He's played 82 in each of the past two time periods. He'll need to again this year if the Wizards are active to hit their over, because any game he sits is virtually an automatic loss given the rest of this roster. Beal is the only starting-caliber player Washington has until John Wall returns and proves he is healthy. If Beal misses even 10 games, the 0-10 stretch that likely comes in that period probably knocks the Wizards out of contention for their over. 

Verdict: Under 26.5

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