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April 15, 2019, 7:01 am

How to identify the best Game 1 loser in NBA playoffs to bet

Now that all NBA archetypal-round playoff ordering have dressed their openers, many bettors are intelligent astir one thing: The zig zag! There are many variations of what’s named “the zig-zag explanation ” in playoff dissipated.

How to identify the best Game 1 loser in NBA playoffs to bet
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How to place the best Game 1 loser in NBA playoffs to bet

By Jeff Fogle, VSiN

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April 14, 2019 | 11:25pm

Enlarge Image Michael Carter-Williams drives to the handbasket against Danny Green. Getty Images

Now that all NBA archetypal-round playoff ordering have dressed their openers, many bettors are intelligent astir one thing: The zig zag!

There are many variations of what’s named “the zig-zag explanation ” in playoff dissipated.

To some, it means skipping the archetypal game, then dissipated the consecutive up loser against the dispersed the next time out. The explanation is that whoever lost the anterior game will be super-motivated to play great, piece the winner might make the mistake of relaxing.

To others, it means skipping the archetypal game, then dissipated whoever didn’t cover the component dispersed, because ATS results should regress toward break-even over time. It’s a fast variation on “the due explanation ,” with the team that didn’t cover the anterior game being due to cover this one.

Old-school bettors (some of whom will claim they invented “the zig-zag explanation ” back in the day) will tell you you’re supposed to bet the home teams Games 1 and 3 because the crowds will be extra boisterous, but then bet the previous consecutive up loser in any other game.

Who’s right? Is there an actual strategy bettors should use that’s very likely to earn a profit?

Look, the market knows astir the zig-zag explanation . A liquid market is the sum of all models, and that’s one strategy that’s been absorbed into the stew. It may work some years. It’s extremely likely to work in a few ordering. The trick is knowing in advance which those will be.

Working against the zig zag (any variation):

  • Superior teams have become much more aggressive in recent years astir finishing early rounds as quickly as possible. The more good teams rest, the fresher they are when a championship is on the line. If an elite team sweeps a ordering with big victories, the zig zag takes a bath. If a few do that, good news from more competitive matchups probably won’t be enough to earn an overall playoff profit.
  • Three-component shooting is erratic, which is a randomizer that can have a mind of its own. The highs and lows of this dynamic aren’t interested in following along with the zig zag. It’s possible for a team of shooters to be hot or cold for more than one game at a time.
  • Betting’s standard 11/10 vigorish works against any strategy. That’s a harder hurdle to clear than most gamblers realize. If your zig zags post a 50/50 record, you lose money. You must hit 52.4 percent of your bets to break even, and probably at least 54 percent for a strategy to feel like it’s worth your piece.

There will be some bounce-backs this week. A few of those are likely to beat the dispersed by big margins. But, that doesn’t mean you should bet every possible bounce-back. Sharps focus on team skill sets, and whether or not market prices properly capture those skill sets. It’s something to think astir as you ponder game two of Nets-76ers Monday night (TNT, 7 p.m.) and the rest of this week’s action.

Filed under nba playoffs 2019 ,  sports dissipated ,  Sports Picks

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